Who will win the 2006 WC
The world cup is over 6 months away and the play-offs are yet to begin so it might sound foolhardy to be talking about the winners already, but it would make sense to shortlist the possible contenders. Lets start with a round up of the teams that have already qualified for the World cup. From Europe we have Germany, Croatia, England, France, Holland, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Serbia and Montenegro, Sweden and Ukraine. The European playoffs are between Spain v Slovakia, Switzerland v Turkey and Norway v Czech Rep. From South America- Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay have qualified and the play-off is between Uruguay and Australia. From Asia we have Japan, Iran, South Korea and Saudi Arabia and the playoff is between Bahrain and Trinidad and Tobago. From the concacaf USA and Mexico have qualified and Trinidad and Tobago is in the play-offs. From Africa Angola, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Togo and Tunisia have qualified. Finally Australia could qualify from the Oceania group when they take on Uruguay.
Starting with Europe, Croatia, Poland, Sweden, Serbia and Montenegro and Ukraine can be effectively eliminated, as the probability of them winning the World cup is the same as that of the French winning in battle. You could always argue that Greece went on to win Euro when no one expected them to. What has to be noted here is that the South Americans did not take part in the Euro, none of these mentioned teams play the kind of football that Greece plays and also Shevchenko is no Maradona to replicate 1986. From the play-offs Spain and the Czech republic should qualify rather easily but it would be a humdinger between Switzerland and Turkey though I would give Turkey a slight edge considering the fact that they got the better players. But off late they are just a pale shadow of the overachieving team that played in the last world cup. Switzerland does not hold the potential to win the World cup and hence can also be eliminated. Even if by mere Karma Norway and Slovakia do scrape through they cannot be expected to make it beyond the initial stages. It would be foolish to completely disregard Turkey because they do have the players to pull off a couple of major upsets. Though on paper Portugal have one of the stronger teams with the likes of Ronaldo, Ferrera, Carvalho, Deco and Pauleta they are more of a bunch of highly talented individuals rather than a strong team. That leaves Spain, Czech Republic, England, Germany, France, Holland and Italy in contention from Europe. It would be asking a lot of the highly talented Czech side to go on to win the World cup though anything short of the quarterfinals will be a big let down. The Spaniards have been the perennial underachievers and I don’t see anything change this time around. Though the defense and the midfield are relatively sound with the likes of Casillas, Puyol, Baraja and Joaquin in the team the forwards are a major Achilles heel. Raul, Reyes and Torres are not good enough to break down a good defense. Holland, another of those underachievers cannot be expected to pull off any surprises with a relatively inexperienced squad. I don’t think that what the likes of Cruijff, Rijkaard, Van Basten and Bergkamp could not achieve Nistelrooy and Robben can. The French were more or less a one World cup wonder with a wonderful Zidane. The current squad has an inexperinced defense a relatively untested midfield and a strong attack. But to expect Henry to single-handedly win the World cup for France would be unwise, as he has always looked like a novice footballer outside the confines of cozy England. Every world cup for some time now, a lot of the football knowledgeable expects Italy to achieve something and each time they disappoint. This time around it wont be any different though they have a wonderfully talented squad. The Italians forwards have always been a disappointment and Gilardino hasn’t exactly set the stands on fire at the San Siro. The Germans have the advantage of home soil and I see them make it atleast up to the semifinal stages but beyond that it would be a rather uphill task for them. It’s a shame to mention that a country that produced the likes of Beckenbauer, Klinsmann, Mathaus, Muller and Voller now has to contend with the likes of Podolski. Klose and Kuranyi who are not even thoroughbred Germans. That leaves England, with a brilliant defense, an outstanding midfield and an average forward lineup. But what swings the pendulum in England’s favor is the fact that you can always expect the likes of Lampard, Terry, Cole and Gerrard to score. The only chink in the armory for England is the man between the posts but you would not expect Ronaldinho to recreate the freak goal of 2002.
From South America we have Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, Paraguay and unless a miracle happens Uruguay. The Australians are going to find it near impossible to beat Uruguay at the altitudes of Montevideo and with Diego Forlan in the form of his life and with a certain individual called Recoba who was once the highest paid professional footballer in the world it would be only a stupid man who would bet on Australia. Ecuador and Paraguay cannot be expected to make it beyond the preliminary stages. Uruguay is definitely not a pushover and can be expected to pull off a couple of stunners but that is all. That leaves Brazil and Argentina in the reckoning. The once mighty Argentines have since faded into oblivion merely contend with trying to beat Brazil in World cup qualifiers and in the Copa America cup. They don’t have the defense or the forwards to pose any serious threat and a quarterfinal berth would be an apt reward. Finally we have the mighty Brazilians with an outstanding goalkeeper, excellent midfield and some heavenly forwards. The only Achilles they have is the defense, which was exploited time and again in the last world cup. The bright point though is that the forwards have what it takes to score twice of what they might concede. Though the likes of Cicinho, Belletti, Lucio and Carlos may not be Maldini’s you have to remember that there is only one Maldini and I believe that among the qualifiers only England and Italy have a better defense than Brazil.
From Asia the following countries have qualified, Iran, Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia and most probably Bahrain. It would be a major upset if Bahrain somehow manages to lose against Trinidad and Tobago. This is the contingent to watch out for and each country is capable of beating the best on their day. The weaker countries appear to be Japan, South Korea and Bahrain and I don’t see them make it beyond the Preliminaries or the pre-quarterfinals. Saudi Arabia has always been outstanding in qualifiers but has always managed to fizz out at the world cup and it cannot be any better this time around. The team to watch out for is however Iran with their highly talented squad many of whom ply their trade in the Bundesliga and it would not be shocking if they do manage to pull off a couple of major upsets along the way.
Among the African countries there is Ghana, Ivory Coast, Togo, Tunisia and Angola. Togo, Tunisia and Angola are expected to simply make up the numbers and even Ivory Coast even with the likes of Toure and Drogba may not present any major challenge to any of the potential winners. The teams to watch out for are the Ghanaians and they could pull off a couple of surprises on the lines of Senegal in the last world cup.
Lastly there is the concacaf with USA, Mexico and Trinidad and Tobago if miracles still happen. The Americans who were outstanding in the last world cup were basically one man, Landon Donovan and with him being a major flop at Bayer Leverkusen to expect him to shine in Germany would be asking for too much. The Mexicans are good enough for a pre-quarterfinal berth depending upon who they get paired with and that is that for them.
Bottom line is that Brazil will face off against England in the finals provided they don’t run into each other midway. The English definitely have a better defense than the samba boys but the Brazilian forwards are miles ahead of the likes of Rooney and Owen and in midfield they are more or less on par and it would be near impossible to disseminate the likes of Ronaldinho and Kaka from the likes of Lampard, Gerrard and Beckham. Though unlike Beckham, Lampard and Gerrard have not exactly marveled while playing for country the same can be said about the Brazilian midfield. So finally it would come down to the question of who needs the World cup more, and if you ask me it would be England.
But it would be nothing short of a miracle for England to beat Brazil
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